March Madness Odds

Betting on the NCAA Tournament this year has been building into a massive crescendo since the coronavirus pandemic canceled the 2020 event—the first time it hadn’t been staged since the first one in 1939—and with the impressive expansion of legalized sports betting.

March Madness 2021 National Championship odds favor Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images The much anticipated 2021 NCAA Tournament begins Thursday, March 18 with the First Four followed by full opening round action on Friday, March 19. CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket. The chances of a perfect March Madness bracket are almost none. Different prediction models reveal daunting odds. Random pickers face impossible odds, 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,777,808. That’s 1 in 9.2 quintillion, according to Forbes.

March Madness Odds To Make It

Since Virginia beat Texas Tech in overtime in Minneapolis on April 8, 2019, 13 jurisdictions have added legalized sports betting. This means that nearly half the country can now partake in the NCAA bracket odds and tournament excitement. Rules and restrictions, however, do vary by state.

The point spreads and totals and parlay puzzles, all now so available to so many discerning patrons, require insights and maps with which to navigate the tournament in Indiana, the first time the NCAAs will be staged in a single state.

Avoiding third rails and capitalizing on March Madness betting odds will ultimately thicken the wallet and pad the bankroll.

Current March Madness Betting Odds for 2021

For élite pedigrees alone, it’s difficult to overlook recent March Madness champions, Virginia and Villanova. All the Cavaliers and Wildcats have done is claim three of the past four titles, Virginia in 2019, Nova in 2016, and ’18.

This season, Baylor and Gonzaga have steamrollered toward what many envision to be an inevitable crash.

Virginia’s Final Four odds, courtesy of BetMGM, is +400 (or wager $100 to win $400), while Nova is +125, Baylor +100 (even money), and the Zags the favorites at -300 (risk $300 to win $100).

Odds To Win NCAA Tournament Championship And Move To Final Four (From BetMGM)

• +300 Gonzaga (-300)
• +300 Baylor (+100)
• +700 Michigan (+150)
• +1100 Villanova (+125)
• +1400 Houston (+450)
• +1400 Ohio State (+700)
• +1400 Texas (+250)
• +1800 Iowa (+250)
• +1800 Illinois (+250)
• +2000 Virginia (+400)
• +2500 West Virginia (+400)
• +2500 USC (+700)
• +3500 Kansas (+450)
• +4000 Oklahoma (+1500)
• +5000 San Diego St (+800)
• +6600 Utah St (+3400)
• +7500 UCLA (+900)
• +8000 Boise St (+2400)
• +8000 BYU (+2400)
• +8000 Duke (+500)
• +8000 Kentucky (+800)

That’s a safe quartet of futures options. We, though, are taking a different tack. Some of that quartet will cannibalize each other, a couple of our picks will do damage and at least one might get blindsided by a Loyola Chicago, Creighton, or Belmont.

We’re also banking that our national-semifinalists will be sent to four different regions, to at least have the chances to all meet in Indianapolis.

Ron “Skinny” Boyles, a professional handicapper for more than 40 years, recently related to us that not only is the Big Ten Conference the strongest league “in the world,” but it might be the toughest he’s witnessed over the past 10 to 15 years.

In fact, college hoops statistical wiz Ken Pomeroy rates 10 Big Ten programs among the nation’s top 12 most difficult schedules, and 13 of the top 18. That’s a testament to the league’s toughness, reinforcing our March Madness bracket predictions.

Three-For-Four For The Big Ten

The Big Ten will match history by sending three teams to the Final Four. In 1985, the Big East set the standard, which hasn’t been matched, when three of its programs comprised the Final Four.

Still, three-for-four for the Big Ten would be the very definition of March Madness, an infusion of excitement for a conference that hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament title since Michigan State in 2000.

Our three Big Ten squads own top-10 adjusted offensive-efficiency ratings by KenPom, Michigan, and Illinois also feature top-11 defenses, and Ohio State boasts enough firepower to duel with anybody.

Michigan (+700 to win title/+150 To Reach Final Four At BetMGM)

Juwan Howard has been a resounding success story in his second year as his alma mater’s boss in Ann Arbor. Michigan improved to 16-1 after a scintillating 92-87 victory at Ohio State on Feb. 21. Hunter Dickinson, like USC’s Evan Mobley, is a freshman 7-footer who hardly plays like a rookie.

Ohio State (+1400/+700)

EJ Liddell, a 6-7, 240-pound sophomore who is dangerous out to 22 feet, senior point man CJ Walker and junior shooting guard Duane Washington Jr. spell trouble for Buckeyes’ opponents. Fourth-year coach Chris Holtmann showed his mettle by guiding Butler to victories in three consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

Illinois (+1800/+250)

Junior guard Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, a 7-foot sophomore from Jamaica, form fourth-year coach Brad Underwood’s lethal high-low game. Dosunmu averages 21.2 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.3 rebounds. With a game on the line, he’s one of the best shooters in the country.

Gonzaga (+300/-300)

The temptation to put Iowa in this spot was so strong, to make it four-for-four for the Big Ten. Alas, Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery’s defensive liabilities are just too glaring. On Baylor’s own court, Iowa State scared the Bears. The Zags are No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and 2-point shooting, and they’re above average—at least—in everything else.

Sportsbooks With The Best NCAA Bracket Odds

The online marketplace for NCAA Tournament bracket odds vary, sometimes wildly, and fluctuate regularly, putting those who have done their homework in the best positions to capitalize.

Fifteen states currently allow online sports betting, and FanDuel and DraftKings are in 10 jurisdictions, BetMGM is in nine, William Hill eight, and BetRivers seven. Those are the biggest shops, but many smaller operations contribute to providing customers with deep menus.

Incentives are aplenty, too. In Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, and Virginia, William Hill Sportsbook has a $2,021 risk-free bet incentive, while in Illinois it’s $300. PointsBet offers $2,000 in risk-free bets in the Land of Lincoln. BetMGM has an initial risk-free amount of $600 in its nine states, and BetRivers has a $250 match.

FanDuel sponsors a $1,000 risk-free bet, and DraftKings promotes a $1,000 deposit match. In New Jersey, WynnBET and FOX Bet offer $500 in risk-free wagers. Some sites accept Bitcoin, allow PayPal deposits and withdrawals, and offer parlay boosts and other incentives, and all are subject to change.

It always pays to shop, as shown in a review of random odds on Michigan, Iowa, Texas, and San Diego State at BetMGM, William Hill, and FanDuel.

The Wolverines, when we surveyed the charts, checked in at +700 at the first two, +600 at FanDuel. Recreational players might not regard such a difference, but that slim disparity is invaluable to the professional bettor over the long haul.

Iowa was +1800 at BetMGM, +1600 at both William Hill and FanDuel. The Longhorns were +1400 at BetMGM, +2500 at William Hill, +2300 at FanDuel.

The Aztecs checked in at +5000 at BetMGM, +7500 at both William Hill and FanDuel. Wager $100 to win $5,000, or $7,500? Makes a difference, which is why shopping is so important.

Best Bonus Offers For New Bettors On NCAA March Madness

March Madness Odds To Win

How To Bet On March Madness

To show how to weigh in on March Madness point spreads, we offer as an example perhaps the most infamous betting line in college hoops history, Maryland-Baltimore County’s epic upset of Virginia in Charlotte, NC, on March 16, 2018.

The Retrievers won, 74-54, becoming the first 16-seeded squad to upend a top-seeded team. That an underdog of more than 20 points could outright beat such a perceived powerhouse by that margin seemed pure fiction, until the nightmare materialized for the Cavaliers.

Odds bounced around at many books through the run-up to the game, so for our purposes, we will use William Hill’s numbers.

Wagering on the spread and total are termed “side” bets, which carry a 10% vigorish, or vig, price. Taking Virginia and giving the 20.5 points to win $200, say, would cost $220. If the Cavaliers win by at least 21 points, that ticket cashes.

If someone lays $220, to win $200, on Under 119, the ticket wins if both teams tally 118 or fewer points. If it finishes at 119, it’s a push and the principle is returned. A wager on Over 119 means both teams must combine to score at least 120 points for it to win.

Those side bets can be parlayed—say, Virginia to the Under—with a payoff of about 3.6 times the investment if it hits. The vigorish only applies to side bets, so a winning $100 two-way parlay would return about $360, or a net win of $260.

The more legs to a parlay, the higher rate of return. Professional bettors avoid parlays like the plague, though, since it’s such a challenge to simply win a single side wager. They abhor complicating the task of making this venture profitable over the long haul.

UMBC’s moneyline price, at 25-to-1 odds, against Virginia made it salacious, and 134 people at William Hill’s Nevada outlets put money on that bet. Six risked $100, receiving $2,600 (the winnings plus the principle) in return. One person at the Venetian made an $800 wager, at +2000, which returned $16,800.

A professional handicapper informed us of his penchant to back Nos. 1 and 2 seeds when they’re favored by fewer than 20 points against 16 and 15 seeds, respectively, in first-round matchups. He says, “It isn’t that rare, and [the higher seeds] always seem to want to prove something.”

Another pro conveyed backing an underdog team that is lethal from 3-point range against a superior opponent. “The great equalizer in college basketball,” he called the 3-point shot.

Programs that fit that label include South Dakota State, Cal Baptist, and Bryant, and such minnows riding a hot recent streak from distance include Cal State Fullerton, Texas State, Louisiana, and the College of Charleston.

NCAA Final Four Odds

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks establish futures figures in the preseason, applying their experience and power ratings for initial numbers that will get massaged— increase or decrease—according to the amounts of money they attract. Those figures could change daily, multiple times an hour, or not budge for a month.

Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy (KenPom), who issues a wealth of online information, is an established and experienced source that many oddsmakers will admit tapping in their quests to provide accurate information for games and futures options.

A flow of money coming in on one program at one book will result in a lowering of its odds, and the likely raising of other teams, all of which wouldn’t necessarily occur at competitors’ shops. Therefore, keeping regular tabs on odds everywhere can benefit in snatching value and, in the long term, making a profit.

What Affects March Madness Predictions And Odds

In March 2000, Cincinnati was soaring with Kenyon Martin, widely regarded as the game’s best player. A No. 1 seed in the NCAAs seemed an afterthought, a third national-championship trophy for the Bearcats a strong likelihood.

Instead, Martin suffered a broken leg in the Conference USA tournament in Memphis. The Bearcats were dealt a No. 2 seed, and they were beaten by coach Bill Self and Tulsa in the second round of the NCAAs.

Anyone holding a futures ticket on that Cincinnati team probably still feels the sting. That’s Exhibit A of what can affect a team’s odds, point spread, and totals.

Injuries, transfer defections, and opt-outs all affect those numbers. When Duke lost talented freshman Jalen Johnson—who left to prepare for the NBA draft—in mid-February, its odds to win the whole thing varied between 60-1 and 150-1.

The Blue Devils, many believed, responded by playing better without Johnson. Their backers probably salivated about getting triple digits on Duke to win it all, if they moved fast.

Then there’s North Carolina State, which squeaked into the 1983 NCAAs by winning the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. Then it won six and the national title. March Madness betting coups don’t come any better than Maryland-Baltimore County in 2018 or NC State in 1983.

NCAA Basketball Game Odds

If a team goes on a winning streak, it becomes an attractive futures bet and those corresponding odds will likely lessen as that team attracts attention and money.

That’s what I banked on when I bought an 80-to-1 ticket on Texas, in the preseason, to win it all. The Longhorns have an experienced cast, and my sole aim was to make a profit on the secondary ticket site PropSwap, hoping to double my investment.

The Horns complied. After a big win, I got a big nibble and indeed more than doubled my principle. A win for me and a win for the buyer, who obtained much better odds on Texas than were available at that time.

Restrictions On College Betting Online

The minimum age requirement is 21 in every legalized jurisdiction except Montana, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Washington, DC, where anyone 18 and older can make a wager. Rules vary among each jurisdiction.

Many states with legal sports betting place restrictions on college sports betting. This is to protect the players, who are often quite young. For example, states like New Jersey and Virginia place restrictions on betting on in-state college teams. Virginia does permit betting on in-state teams during March Madness, though. Many states, including Iowa and Tennesse, prohibit prop bets on March Madness and all college games. Oregon prohibits all wagering on college sports at its retail sportsbook locations.

NCAA Basketball And March Madness Odds FAQs

Yes. Sports betting is legal in some form in almost two dozen states. Online sports betting is also legal in about a dozen states, including Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington, DC.

Bookmakers concoct their own futures, and game spreads and totals odds, then adjust those figures according to the market. If a flow of limit wagers comes in heavy on one team, expect the odds on that team to decrease and odds on other teams to increase, to attract money elsewhere, and, ultimately, to limit the book’s exposure and liability.

KenPom serves as the odds foundation for many sportsbooks, to which they themselves will admit, but they also factor their own oddsmakers’ power ratings and experiences, and an innate feel for the games and public appetite.

March Madness odds can be found on websites for many of the Vegas retail sportsbooks. Plus, online sportsbook apps that are legal in Nevada also carry odds.

Handicappers, and some of their ideas and selections, can be found on social media, and there are some very wise voices on other platforms, like the Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN) whose flagship voice is of the legendary broadcaster, Brent Musburger.

Although it requires many years to perfect, it is rewarding to do your own homework. Excellent resources include teamrankings.com and KenPom’s excellent databases, whose annual fee of $20 is a pittance. Those can be invaluable in helping bettors form their own power ratings and edges, leading to anomalies that can sometimes be glaring when comparing what a line should be to what’s on the big board in the books.

Ncaa March Madness Odds To Win It All

The NCAA pegs the odds of picking all 63 games of the NCAA Tournament correctly at 1 in 9.223 quintillion, a quintillion being one billion billion—a number requiring six commas. The debate, though, is ongoing, as a Duke professor says it’s closer to 1 in 1.4 trillion, and one at DePaul pins it at 1 in 128 billion. Hey, what’s a comma or two?

Many do, but each property’s offerings can vary. In many physical books in Vegas, adjusted in-game odds are available during the two or three minutes of commercial breaks—better wear your track shoes—and at the longer halftime breaks. Online offerings can be instantaneous, but a poor internet connection and heavy traffic can affect those transactions.

Yes. Those numbers are available at the company’s online site.