Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term

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Why Trump Won’t Serve His Full First Term 03:40 pm ET Updated Feb 01, 2017 We’re just one week into the administration of the 45th President of the United States and already we’ve seen signs the end might be near. The promise of a single term could, in theory, encourage some Democrats who would prefer a female, minority, and/or younger candidate to back him as the most electable choice against Trump, safe. A second method by which Trump might not complete his full term is implementing the untested process outlined in the 25 th Amendment to the Constitution. Under this unlikely scenario, the vice.

Both President Donald Trump, 74, and former Vice President Joe Biden, 77, are 'super-agers' overwhelmingly likely to live beyond their mid-80s—but a new study finds Biden has a higher probability of outliving his younger opponent.

The age and mental acuity of both septuagenarian presidential candidates became a campaign talking point almost immediately after Biden, who would be the oldest president to ever take office, joined the 2020 race against Trump, who is currently the oldest U.S. president to enter office. A new study published in September's Journal on Active Aging draws on publicly available medical records, family disease history and confirmed personal information to determine how ageism and longevity have factored into the election.

Neither candidate is projected to have major cognitive functioning challenges now or over the next four years, despite critical campaign rhetoric claiming otherwise.

Biden, who will turn 78 just days after the November 3 election, has a 95.2 percent probability of surviving a four-year term in office, compared to Trump at 90.3 percent, according to the study data. Conversely, there is an 82.2 percent chance Biden does not live through January 2025, while Trump has an 86.2 percent chance of dying prior to the end of his potential second White House term.

The study authors say both candidates are 'super-agers' who are overwhelmingly likely to maintain their health far beyond the end of the next term. Their findings suggest age should not be a factor in voters' decisions at the ballot box despite both being well positioned to break all previous records as the oldest president in U.S. history.

'Both candidates appear to be on course to become 'super-agers,' men and women who live into their eighties or longer, with preserved physical and cognitive function,' said co-author Bradley Willcox, director of research at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa's Department of Geriatric Medicine at the John A. Burns School of Medicine. 'They face lower than average risk of experiencing significant health or cognitive functioning challenges during the next four years.'

Using data tied to genetics, social risk factors and behavioral patterns, Biden is expected to outlive Trump despite being three years older than the president. Each candidate's parents lived beyond their mid-80s, with Biden's father living to be 87 and his mother to 93 years of age. Trump's mother lived to be 88 and his father lived to be 94 years old.

'The results are evidence that age does not matter in this historic election in which the next elected president will be the oldest in American history,' said corresponding study author Stuart Jay Olshansky, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago. 'We see chronological age as a topic of discussion time and again during elections, even though scientific and medical evidence tells us that biological age is far more important.'

Trump has an elevated familial risk of developing late-onset Alzheimer's disease, but the study authors note 'neither candidate is expected to have major cognitive functioning challenges' in the near future. The researchers write that Biden has a 'nearly perfect health profile for a man his age,' but Trump has 'significant but modifiable' risk factors, notably his weight.

Both candidates are projected to live longer than the average man in the United States. The probability that Biden reaches the age of 85 is 66 percent and Trump's is placed at 60 percent. Despite the Trump campaign repeatedly calling Biden's mental competency into question, the study authors say this is not the case for either candidate. The study was conducted and released prior to Trump's announcement early Friday that he had contracted COVID-19. His physicians said Saturday that he is set for a full and quick recovery.

'The weaponizing of aging to portray the opposing candidate as a doddering old fool, in the presidential campaign, is ageism, pure and simple,' Wilcox said in a press release Friday. 'In this election, each candidate is biologically younger than their chronological age.'

Newsweek reached out to the study authors and both campaigns for additional remarks Saturday afternoon.

A Donald Trump rally became deadly this week when violent protesters stormed the US Capitol building arguing for the result of the US election in November to be overturned. Joe Biden condemned Mr Trump’s “insurrection” of the violence and many politicians in Washington DC have called for Mr Trump to be removed from office immediately. But could Mr Trump really be impeached?

The US Congress has now certified Mr Biden’s victory in the presidential election in the wake of Mr Trump supporters breaking into the US Capitol.

Lawmakers were forced to suspend their activity and resumed only once the police managed to remove the mob.

The certification clears the path for Mr Biden’s inauguration on January 20.

Following Mr Biden’s confirmation today, Mr Trump said there would be an orderly transition on January 20.

However, the incumbent leader added he completely disagreed with the outcome of the election.

His statement said: “Even though I totally disagree with the outcome of the election, and the facts bear me out, nevertheless, there will be an orderly transition on January 20.

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Life Insurance

“I have always said we would continue our fight to ensure that only legal votes were counted.

“While this represents the end of the greatest first term in presidential history, it’s only the beginning of our fight to Make America Great Again!”

READ MORE: Biden’s remarks on ‘EU state’ offer UK worrying insight

Could Donald Trump be impeached?

Millions around the globe have expressed their outrage at Mr Trump with the hashtags #LockHimUp, #25thAmendmentNow and #ImpeachTrumpNow trending on Twitter.

One person tweeted: “A woman died today because Trump lied to her that the election had been stolen and made her believe that taking part in an attack on the US Capitol was a legitimate way to overturn the Electoral College. He, once again, has blood on his hands. #ImpeachTrumpNow #25thAmendmentNow”.

Another added: “No, Mr President, these are the things and events that happen when a deranged egomaniac cannot accept defeat and whips the worst of his supporters into a frenzy with a steady diet of lies and misinformation. #ImpeachTrumpNow”.

On Twitter another person wrote: “Four people died yesterday as a direct result of the hateful rhetoric and lies of 45. He should be held responsible for this. This is his fault. #LockHimUpNow”.

One person wrote: “We must not tolerate a psychotic president. Remove him. Invoke the 25th Amendment. Now. #25thAmendmentNow”.

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In a snap poll undertaken on January 7, US voters say the events at the US Capitol were a threat to democracy.

A YouGov Direct poll of 1,397 registered voters who had heard about the event finds that 62 percent of voters perceive these actions as a threat to democracy.

Overall, 93 percent of Democrats overwhelmingly see it this way, while 55 percent of Independents also agree.

Among Republicans, however, only 27 percent think this should be considered a threat to democracy, with two-thirds 68 percent say otherwise.

Almost half (45 percent) of Republicans “strongly or somewhat supported” the action taken at the Capitol, with 53 percent saying Donald Trump was “not at all” to blame.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers have also tweeted in support of using the 25th amendment to oust Mr Trump from office.

US Congressman Ted Lieu tweeted: “He is why the 25th amendment exists when the president has ‘lost it.’ If Trump doesn’t resign, then [vice president] Mike Pence needs to start the process to remove [Donald Trump] ASAP.”

Mr Lieu later tweeted: “Leadership in the Senate and House are misreading the situation if they simply adjourn after we accept the electoral college results.

“There is much anger among the members and the American public.

“We cannot just leave without holding Trump accountable. That will only embolden him.”

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term President

In a statement, the Assistant House Speaker Katherine Clark said: “Despite the seditious attempt to overthrow our democracy, we in Congress will fulfil our duty to ensure the will of the people and the integrity of our democracy are upheld.

“But the next days and weeks remain dangerous.

“Donald Trump is a traitor to our country and our Constitution.

“He must be removed from office and prevented from further endangering our country and our people.”

Another impeachment could be undertaken in a bid to challenge Mr Trump and potentially look to remove him from office early.

However, impeachment is a timely process and it is unlikely it could be undertaken before Mr Biden is sworn in.

Instead, lawmakers have said the use of the 25th amendment to remove Mr Trump as President would be quicker and preferable.

However, the 25th amendment would rely upon support from within Mr Trump’s Cabinet and Congress, which many political insiders claim is unlikely.

READ MORE: Donald Trump concedes: Statement in FULL as US President stands down

According to bookmaker Smarkets, Donald Trump is still very likely (94 percent) to remain in office for the next two weeks and see out his first term in full after his supporters stormed the Capitol building yesterday to disrupt Congress officially confirming Joe Biden’s victory.

There was a brief period of trading on the exchange last night where the likelihood of the president being ousted early rose as high as 84 percent.

In addition, according to Smarkets, Mr Trump has fallen from 32 percent to 19 percent to be the Republican nominee in 2024.

With the bookmaker putting Mr Trump’s odds of pardoning himself 32 percent, up from 15 percent.

Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi said: “Unprecedented scenes at the Capitol between the supporters of Donald Trump and the police caused wild trading on our “Trump to serve a full term” betting market last night.

“For a brief period, the likelihood of Trump being ousted before January 20 climbed over 80 percent before returning to just five percent this morning, with the chance of a 25th Amendment removal appearing remote.”

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term Abortions

Bookmaker Ladbrokes added Donald Trump’s odds for completing his full term as President is at 1/16 odds, with the chance of him not completing his full term is at 8/1.

Odds Of Trump Lasting A Full Term 2020

Ladbrokes puts the odds of President Trump issuing a self-pardon at 7/4, with 2/5 that he will not issue a self-pardon.

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