Political Odds
Vegas Odds And Betting Lines For The 2020 Presidential Election. December 31 Update: Donald Trump has yet to concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election amid claims of widespread fraud (though most Vegas political sportsbooks have paid out Biden bettors already). Odds as of March 1 at Bovada Why Kamala Harris Is The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Favorite. There are a lot of moving parts and perhaps conflicting factors in why Kamala Harris is the favorite in 2024 U.S. Presidential election odds. Political Odds 2020 Politics & Business Betting & News. We offer the latest odds on US Politics, from Debates, Elections and up to the Economy of the country. So what are you waiting for Signup and Bet on the US Politics Today!
Trump’s odds to win the 2016 election were near 5-to-1 the day before the election. Wagering on political outcomes seems a lot more enjoyable, and financially wise, than arguing with strangers on social media. What Do the Numbers Mean? For those new to 2020 election odds, the numbers can be a little confusing. US politics betting for all American markets. Get 2020 Election odds, including Democrat and Republican candidates, plus midterm specials and much more.
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
- According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
- Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.
Election Betting Odds
By Maxim Lott and John Stossel
Hover over candidate pics for market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.
Odds for this page are averaged between FTX.com, Betfair and Smarkets
Political Odds Betting
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25.6% |
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3.5% |
22.4% 0.2% |
11.3% +0.0% |
10.0% 0.1% |
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16.0% |
By John Stossel | By Nate Silver | By Burton Malkiel | By Maajid Nawaz | By Yeonmi Park |
Political Odds Site
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